Merrill's Early March 2025 Market Overview

Natural Gas Market Summary – March 10, 2025

Over the weekend, natural gas (NG) futures experienced a modest rise due to cooler-than-expected weather, keeping demand steady. However, forecasts indicate warmer temperatures on the horizon, which may soften demand throughout the rest of the week.

Key Highlights:

• Storage Reports: Last week’s data reflected a smaller-than-expected withdrawal from storage, signaling weaker domestic demand due to milder temperatures in some regions. As warmer weather approaches, we could see storage levels remain stable or even increase, applying downward pressure on prices.
• LNG Exports: LNG exports continue to play a pivotal role, with strong global demand providing support to NG futures. However, any reduction in export volumes this week could add to price softness, particularly if domestic supply remains ample.

Outlook for the Week:

• Warmer Weather: With milder temperatures expected, NG demand for heating is projected to decrease, likely leading to a bearish outlook for futures mid-to-late week.
• Storage & Supply: If withdrawals from storage continue to slow, and LNG exports don’t pick up significantly, NG futures could face downward pressure.
• Traders should keep a close eye on the storage reports and any fluctuations in LNG export activity, as these factors will shape market movements.